Daqin Railway (601006): Earnings and profit are basically flat

Daqin Railway (601006): Earnings and profit are basically flat

Event: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 598 in the first three quarters.

72 ppm, a ten-year increase2.

62%; net profit attributable to mother 120.

880,000 yuan, down 2 every year.

57%; net profit of non-return to mother is 120.

76 ppm, a decrease of 1 per year.


Q3 achieved operating income of 196.

0.6 billion, down 3 every year.

45%; net profit attributable to mother 40.

48 ppm, a decrease of 0 per year.


Thermal power demand is not strong, overlapping and overhaul are ahead of schedule, and the transportation volume of the Daqin Line declined in the third quarter.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s core operating assets, the Daqin Line, gradually completed the front end of cargo transportation volume of 32348, a decrease of 4.

73%, mainly due to the weak demand for coal for downstream thermal power.

Among them, affected by the typhoon weather and September Daqin line maintenance overdue period, the Daqin line completed 10529 errors in the third quarter, a decrease of 7.

81%; annual decline in freight volume led to a decrease in operating income in the first three quarters2.


With the arrival of the coal season in the fourth quarter and the completion of overhauls in advance, the growth rate of the fourth quarter will accelerate and improve, and gradually the freight volume is expected to achieve 4

300 million tons.

The cost of overhaul led to a decline in gross profit margin, and the decline in financial costs led to a decline in the expense ratio during the period.

The company’s operating costs increased in the first three quarters of 20194.

5%, higher than 2.

62% revenue growth, affecting the decline in gross profit margin1.

36pct, gross margin for the first three quarters was 25.

46%, the decline in gross profit is expected to be related to the overhaul ahead of schedule.

But the company’s financial expenses are zero.

91 ‰, a year-on-year decrease of 55%, mainly due to the increase in interest income from bank deposits.

Period expenses1.

1%, a decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.

36 points.

The distribution of the Haoji-Jilin Railway is generally controllable, benefiting from the “Outline of Building a Strong Country for Transportation”.

On September 28, the Haoji Railway was officially opened to traffic. From the perspective of railway lines, the degree of overlap of major sources of goods, and the price comparison (the actual freight price of the Haoji Railway is higher 青岛夜网 than expected), the distribution of the Haoji Railway to the Daqin Railway is generally controllable.

After the Daqin Railway increased its capital to the Haoji Railway, the shareholding ratio reached 10%, becoming its fourth largest shareholder, and it will contribute incremental investment income to the company in the long run.

In addition, the “Outline of the Construction of a Powerful Country for Transportation” clearly proposes to further promote the increase of the proportion of “transit railways”, and the company will benefit from the promotion of “transit railways”.

Investment suggestion: Against the background of stable supply and demand of public transit iron and coal, the company’s performance is highly certain, and it is expected to maintain a 50% dividend rate.

The company’s EPS for 2019/2020/2021 is expected to be 0.


99 yuan, PE is 8/8/8 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: coal demand is lower than expected, the macro economy is down, and the volume of transit to rail transportation is lower than expected

Is the explosion of funds frequently a signal that the market has peaked?

Is the explosion of funds frequently a signal that the market has peaked?

Is the explosion of funds frequently a signal that the market has peaked? China Securities Network Wang Chengcheng 17 funds compete on the same stage, super big names gathered . The fund super issue week just passed has not been affected by the epidemic, and is being sought after by the fanatics of the people.Instead, it showed a bull market situation-new fund issuances are sold out in a day, and some companies with Internet celebrities have even created multiple firsts in the history of new fund issuance.

  On February 17, the scale of the subscription fund of Ruiyuan Fund’s second public fund was as high as 120 billion yuan, and the placement ratio of about 6% could not help sighing: “It is harder to buy a fund than to buy a new stock!

The author found that the subscription scale of the above-mentioned funds not only refreshed the historical record of 80 billion U.S. dollars a day in public offering of the “three crowns” GF Liu Gezhen, but also surpassed the issuance of 71 billion yuan a day in subscription funds of a public fund in Ruiyuan.

  Does such a bullish fund issuance boom indicate that the market has gone too far?

From historical data, there is indeed a negative correlation between the excessive issuance of new funds and the short-term market.

In the past, there has been a surge in buying of new funds, which often means that market sentiment has increased, indicating that retail funds have already entered the market, and the short-term market will usher in adjustment.

In March and April of last year, after Ruiyuan issued the first fund, the market experienced a series of temporary adjustments, and the “bright top” jokes could also come.

  However, in the medium and long term, the author believes that the significance of the new fund issue to the market trend is indeed the “88 curse” of the past, and it is gradually becoming invalid.

  Ruiyuan’s new fund ‘s subscription amount of 120 billion US dollars a day, although there are factors to promote the channel, but it may also explain several problems: First, the market is not short of money at all, a large amount of money is still waiting for the opportunity to move.

Second, the market may be overdone in the short term, but the risks in the medium market may be higher.

Third, it is difficult for market capital to find too many places to increase dividends, and the rebalancing of the entire large class of assets has just begun.

In fact, the phenomenon of explosive funds is no longer a day or two.

Since last year, in the context of the stock market’s profit-making effect and the fund’s right-hand side, long-term outstanding equity investors have begun to obtain market premiums, and new funds issued by them are often sought after by the market.

Fourth, from the perspective of the nature of the funds, many of the above-mentioned explosive funds are long-term products that need to be locked for three years, indicating that the funds in the subscription fund market are no longer short-term speculative funds, and the funds allocated at the same time have 武汉夜生活网 affected the short-term market fluctuations.Smaller.

Finally, from the perspective of fund performance, after the release of Ruiyuan’s first product last year, although the market has undergone a short-term adjustment, its yield has been around 35% until recently.

I believe this is a good result for holders who buy products based on the medium and long-term absolute income mentality.

  In short, the phenomenon of explosive funds cannot be simply expected to be a signal of market peaking.

Based on the analysis of the current macro-environment of the financial management market, such as housing and property speculation, and the vigorous promotion of standardized assets by banking channels, it can be transformed into a more objective, rational, and forward-looking choice.

Bank of Ningbo (002142) Annual Report Commentary Report: Beautiful performance is a benchmark for city commercial banks

Bank of Ningbo (002142) Annual Report Commentary Report: Beautiful performance is a benchmark for city commercial banks

Event: On the evening of March 29, Bank of Ningbo disclosed its 2018 report.

18-year revenue 289.

3 billion, a year-on-year increase of +14.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 111.

9 billion, a year-on-year increase of +19.


At the end of 18 years, total assets were 1.

12 trillion; NPL ratio is 0.

78%; provision 都市夜网 coverage ratio is 521.


The 18-year average ROE is 18.


Opinion: Earnings continue to grow rapidly, which can be regarded as the benchmark earnings of city commercial banks.

In the past 5 years, the average growth rate of Ningxing ‘s net profit has exceeded 15%, which clearly exceeds the average growth rate of commercial banks over the same period. It is commendable that its net profit growth rate has exceeded 19% in the past three years, which also significantly exceeds that of listed city commercial banksaverage.
In 18 years, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers reached 19.


ROE continues to lead, which is the benchmark for city commercial banks.

The 18-year average ROE is 18.

72%, much higher than the average level of listed banks of about 13%.

The 18-year ROE of Ninghang had 杭州桑拿 previously fallen by zero.

The three averages are mainly the impact of the conversion of convertible bonds into shares.

Optimized asset structure and improved net interest margin.

At the end of 18, the ratio of loans to total assets was 38.

4%, an increase of 4 earlier.

9 assets, optimized asset structure.

At the same time as the rapid growth of loans, the growth rate of deposits has also been better. At the end of 18, deposits increased by 14.


Net interest margin improved.
18-year net interest margin 1.

97%, an annual increase of 3BP; interest-earning asset yield of 4.

67%, an increase of 15BP per year.

18-year debt cost ratio 2.

47%, an increase of 12BP in the past; Among them, the cost of deposits rose by 9BP, mainly due to the rise in the proportion of regular deposits in public deposits, leading to rising costs.

Considering that the market interest rate has remained low in 19 years, the debt cost rate may fall slightly, supporting a stable spread.

Asset quality continued to be outstanding, and provision levels were further improved. Asset quality continued to be outstanding.

At the end of 18, the non-performing loan ratio was zero.

78%, continued to maintain the lowest level; the proportion of “bad + attention” is only 1.

33%, well below 4.96% of the industry average, highlighting its excellent risk control capabilities.

At the end of 18 years, the overdue loan rate was only 0.

89%, there is not much pressure on asset quality in the future.

Provision level has been further improved.

The 18-year provision accrued speed acceleration, and the end-year provision coverage ratio was 521.

8%, loans raised by 4BP to 4 compared with the previous.

08%, significantly higher than 3.

41% industry average.

Investment suggestion: High ROE and high growth, benchmark of city commercial banks. We believe that Ningxing’s leading profitability comes from its very high corporate governance level, highly market-oriented mechanism, and better SME customers and individualsCustomer base and outstanding risk control capabilities.

Based on the risk control concept of “controlling risks is reducing costs”, Ningxing has created a comprehensive, full-fledged, and full-process risk management system, and has avoided the test of economic growth in the past few years.

The business scope of Ningxing is an economically developed area, with the Yangtze River Delta as the main body and the two wings of the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Bay, with obvious regional advantages.

However, considering the effects of interest rate liberalization, the 19/20 profit growth forecast is referred to as the previous 21.

8% / 22.

5% down to 16.

5% / 13.


Ningxing is a high-growth bank with a high ROE and maintains a Buy rating and above1.

8 times the 19-year PB target estimate, corresponding to a target price of 25.

82 yuan / share.

Risk reminder: The intensified trade friction between China and the United States has caused the economic downturn in Ningbo and the downside risks of rising loan interest rates.

Guodian Power (600795): 3Q19 results meet expected downward trend in coal prices or continue to contribute to profitability

Guodian Power (600795): 3Q19 results meet expected downward trend in coal prices or continue to contribute to profitability

The 3Q19 results are in line with market expectations. The company’s 3Q19 results and expected results announced by the company will be: revenue 302.

1 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

4% (after restatement, the same below);

6% to 7.

5 trillion, basically in line with market expectations.

In the first three quarters, the company realized revenue of 827.

0 million yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.

6%; net profit attributable to mother 30.

8 ppm, a ten-year increase2.


Development trend of electricity, coal prices contribute to the growth of gross profit, bullish on the continued downward trend of coal prices in the fourth quarter.

In the third quarter of 2019, the company’s gross profit increased by 10 in ten years.

1%, mainly benefiting from the increase of 1.07 million kilowatts of thermal power installed since this year (660,000 kilowatts of Suqian Thermal Power and 300,000 kilowatts of Chaoyang Thermal Power) to promote the company’s third quarter power generation growth.

7%, and the company ‘s standard coal price in the third quarter further expanded in the first half of the year.

In terms of electricity prices, it was subject to the expansion of the market electricity ratio in the third quarter9.

2 up to 57.

4%, the company’s average on-grid price decreased slightly by 2.


However, if we consider three factors that reduce the growth rate, we estimate that the company’s third-quarter electricity price without tax will be basically the same.

The profit and loss of minority shareholders increased significantly, occupying the net profit space of the mother.

Benefiting from revenue growth and falling coal prices, the company’s 3Q19 net profit (including minority shareholders’ profit and loss) 重庆耍耍网 increased significantly by 16%.

However, due to the relatively high percentage of minority shareholders in some of the better-operating subsidiaries, the company’s third-quarter profit and loss accounted for a large proportion of net profit.

9 up to 61.

2%, which brings about 17 to the increase in net profit attributable to mothers.


Earnings Forecasts and Estimates Considering that the company’s performance is in line with expectations, we maintain our 2019/20 performance forecasts unchanged.

The company’s current consensus corresponds to November 2019/2020.

7 times / 10.

3 times price-earnings ratio.

Maintain Outperform rating and 2.

Target price of 85 yuan, corresponding to 14.

3x 2019 P / E ratio and 12.

6 times 2020 price-earnings ratio, 22 compared with the same period last year.

3% upside.

The risk coal price exceeded expectations, and electricity demand fell short of expectations.

Opening: The two cities opened higher and the Shanghai index rose 0.

33% cloud office segment continues strong

Opening: The two cities opened higher and the Shanghai index rose 0.

33% cloud office segment continues strong

Sina Finance News February 5 news, as of today’s opening, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2792.

37 points, up 0.

33%; Shencheng Index reported 10159.

55 points, up 0.

69%; The Pioneer Index reported 1908.

97 points, up 1.


From the surface of the disk, the cloud 南京夜网 office sector continued to be strong.

  News: 1. The latest data from the Health and Health Commission: 3,887 new confirmed cases nationwide on the 4th, new suspected cases dropped for the second day in a row, 3156 new cases were added in Hubei on the 4th, and the number of confirmed cases in non-Hubei areas decreased from the 3rd.
  2. Major antiviral research results of Academician Li Lanjuan’s team: Abidol, darunavir can effectively inhibit coronavirus.

  3. The central government is clear: Allow qualified third-party testing institutions to conduct nucleic acid testing.

  4. Is it far from the turning point?

Experts from the National Health Committee: There may be an incubation period later.

  5. The World Health Organization stated on the 4th that pneumonitis infected by the new coronavirus is not currently a 四川耍耍网 “global epidemic.”

  6, China Reserve Network issued a notice on February 7th Central Reserve Frozen Pork Issuing Bidding Transaction, out of stock issuing Bidding Transaction 1.

  7, 18 public offerings from their own pockets, at least 1.8 billion to raise A shares.

  8. China Development Bank intends to issue no more than 8 billion special war bonds, with a term of one year.

  9. To prevent the spread of the epidemic, Macau has decided to suspend the gaming industry and related entertainment industries for half a month.

  10. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq surged more than 2% to a new closing high. Tesla rose more than 13%. WTI crude oil futures fell 1% and gold futures fell 1.


  Institutional point of view: Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin Securities, said that after Monday ‘s adjustment, most of the risks in the capital market have been released, and the subsequent market trend will move towards the epidemic.

If the outbreak is fully controlled within two to four weeks, the market will also bottom out when the number of confirmed cases reaches its peak.

From the experience during SARS, the time for market adjustment will not be too long.

Cobos (603486) quarterly commentary: foundry business continues to adjust Q3 performance is less than expected

Cobos (603486) quarterly commentary: foundry business continues to adjust Q3 performance is less than expected
Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the first three quarters achieved revenue of 34.4.5 billion a year-8.18%, net profit attributable to mother 1.01 trillion, one year -64.81%; corresponding to Q3 income 10.1.7 billion a year-17.18%, net profit attributable to mother-0.3 billion yuan -137 per year.99%.  The sweeping robot industry is highly competitive, and the foundry business continues to adjust.3 The decline in revenue further expanded month-on-month, and the foundry business continued to adjust.According to the Q1-Q3 service robot ODM business mentioned in the quarterly report, the cleaning small home appliance OEM business has been repeatedly -87.8%, -16.A simple measurement of 1% shows that the company’s own brand has changed slightly in the first three quarters of the first half of the year. The long-term industry has experienced rapid growth after 18 years of high growth. The replacement of Xiaomi and Stone brands has intensified competition.According to Tmall data, the industry’s recent sales have improved, and the average price of the Cobos brand and other brands has gradually distanced itself, and there has 杭州夜网论坛 been a recovery of online growth.  Expansion of channels at home and abroad, new technology research and development costs increased the company’s gross profit margin in 19Q3, and net profit margin of 37.12% and -2.98%, at least -0.63, -9.50pct.From the perspective of expenses, the company’s sales, management, R & D, and financial expense ratios were +6 each time in 19Q3.59, +1.91, + 2.04, +1.11 points.The sales expense ratio increased significantly. The company continued to expand its international and domestic offline businesses, and its advertising and marketing expenses and employee expenses increased.The substantial increase in research and development costs comes from the company’s continuous increase in the layout of the service robot forward-looking technology, which will further enhance the company’s core competitiveness in the future.The increase in financial expenses was mainly due to the decrease in exchange gains and the increase in cash discounts during the period.  Looking at the balance sheet and prolonging the operating period of the previous period, from the balance sheet, monetary funds + other current assets at the end of the 19Q3 period were 8.7.7 billion, a decrease of 0 from H1.5.3 billion; accounts receivable + notes 6.8.5 billion, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.8.2 billion a year -5.74%; inventory 12.8 billion, an increase of 1 from the previous month.8.8 billion, -12 every year.74%.In terms of turnover, the company’s 19Q1-Q3 inventory and receivables turnover days were +33 for decades.42 days, +15.24 days, business cycle increased by 48.66 days, extended business cycle.From the cash flow statement, Q3 net cash flow from operating activities was -0.US $ 9.7 billion, of which Q3 cash inflow of goods sold and labor services provided -17.33%, a decrease of 17 from Q2.89%.  Investment suggestion: As the industry leader of sweeping robots, while maintaining domestic leading rails, the company will promote the overall technological upgrading of the industry and vigorously develop overseas markets.In the long run, the company still has potential in the future through vigorous expansion in research and development.Considering the continuous adjustment of the company’s foundry business and the vertical growth rate of sweeping robot products affected by the general environment, based on the three quarterly report, we estimate that the net profit for 19-21 will be 3.16, 4.20, 5.2.6 billion (previous value was 5.5, 7.0, 8.7 ppm), the current sustainable corresponding 19-19 year dynamic estimate is 40.0x, 30.1x, 24.0x, maintaining the “overweight” level.  Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, and overseas business development is less than expected.

Huatai Securities (601688) 2019 Interim Report Review: Self-employed to increase performance, wealth management is increasingly sophisticated

Huatai Securities (601688) 2019 Interim Report Review: Self-employed to increase performance, wealth management is increasingly sophisticated

Event Huatai Securities released its 2019 Interim Report.

In the first half of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 111.

070000 yuan, +35 for ten years.

18%; net profit attributable to mother is 40.

57 trillion, +28 a year.

43%; ROE 3.

82%, ten years +0.

24 units.

As of the end of the first half of 2019, the company returned to its shareholders’ equity of 1168.

24 ppm, +12 from the beginning of the year.

99%; BVPS12.

87 yuan.

Brief comment on GDR’s issuance of enriched capital and investment income to support performance.

(1) In June 2019, the company became the first Chinese company to issue a GDR and landed on the London Stock Exchange, raising total funds.

9.2 billion US dollars, set a number of financing records in the United Kingdom and even European capital markets, driving the company’s return to its parent shareholders’ equity increased earlier.

(2) Relying on the stock market recovery in the first half of the year, the company realized investment income (including income from changes in fair value) 47.

72 ppm, +86 a year.

29%, exceeding the total at the beginning of 2018; according to the income statement, the proportion of net income from brokerage / investment bank / asset management / investment / interest to operating income was 20% / 5% / 13% / 42% / 11%, respectively.

Wealth Management: No. 1 in the market share industry, online and offline synergy.

(1) Total trading volume of the company’s stock funds in the first half of the year.

Ten percent of 09, +37.

95%, with a market share of 7 from the same period last year.

10% rose to 7.

51%, ranking first in the industry; at the end of the first half of the year, the total assets of the company’s customer accounts reached 3.

01 trillion yuan, +22 from the beginning of the year.


(2) The mobile platform “Zhangle Wealth Link” continued to improve service scenarios and operating strategies, and successively launched a variety of smart applications such as asking the secretary, quick stock selection, and intelligent voice assistant, with an average monthly activity of 748.

990,000, ten years +17.

77%, ranking first among brokerage apps.

(3) Continuously improving the whole process management model of financial products offline. The proportion of investment consultants among the employees of the parent company increased to 31.

40%, ranking first in the industry; sales scale of financial products (excluding Tianfafa) was 1,677.

44 trillion, ten years +10.


(4) The capital intermediary business has received and released, and the balance of the parent company’s margin financing and securities lending business is RMB548.

390,000 yuan, +26 from the beginning of the year.

02%, maintaining a guarantee ratio of 316.

98%; stock pledged repurchase business has a repurchase margin of 459.

6.6 billion, compared with -14 at the beginning of the year.73%, with an average performance guarantee ratio of 267.


Institutional services: Science and technology board and mergers and acquisitions have advantages, and the scale of solid income investment has increased by 90%.

(1) The company’s equity underwriting amount in the first half of the year was 474.

24 ppm, -42 per year.

83%, mainly due to the release of the pace of review by the CSRC; the company closely followed the changes in the science and technology board, and four sponsored companies listed on the science and technology board for the first time, ranking second; the number of M & A and restructuring transactions was 6, the industry ranked first, and the transaction amount273.

68 ppm, ten years -61.

15%, ranking fourth in the industry.

(2) Relying on the issuance of fixed increase + GDR, the company expanded the scale of investment expansion and 朴妮唛脱胸罩新闻 terminated the company’s proprietary equity securities and their derivatives at the end of the first half of the year.

26 ppm, +42 from the beginning of the year.

39%, self-operated non-equity securities and their derivatives 1595.

680,000 yuan, +92 from the beginning of the year.


The equity business model is transforming into trading, actively expanding alternative strategic means, and exploring innovative profit models such as macro hedging transaction business; the solid income business promotes the upgrade of FICC service system that is oriented towards customer demand and has transaction pricing as its core competence.

Investment management: Continuously improve the ability of active management and product creation.

As of the end of the first half of the year, the total asset management scale of the company was 9,267.

35 trillion, +18 from the beginning of the year.


From the perspective of classification, the collective asset management product line is further enriched, with a scale of 1,427.

02 trillion, +26 from the beginning of the year.

51%; single asset management product actively promotes business transformation, with a scale of 6,708.

26 ppm, +15 from the beginning of the year.

13%; special fund management products continue to maintain the development advantage, and the number and scale of corporate asset securitization projects are among the highest in the industry, with a scale of 1053.

520,000 yuan, +29 from the beginning of the year.


In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s private equity actively managed assets on an average monthly scale of 2,334.

52 ppm, the industry ranked fourth, accounting for 27 of the total scale.


Continue to advance the pilot reform of mixed ownership.

In 2018, the company’s overall pilot plan for the reform of mixed ownership was approved, and it completed a fixed increase in shares while dating strategic investors such as Alibaba and Suning.com.

In 2019, the company will further appoint a professional manager system for senior officials and optimize the salary incentive system, establish an executive committee, without the positions of president and vice president; plan to appoint several executive committee members and other senior managers for global selection.

Investment suggestion: “Buy” rating.

The performance of the securities brokerage sector in 2019 will continue to benefit from the easing of liquidity and the catalysis of capital market reforms. The long-term market is worth looking forward to; under the regulatory thinking of “supporting the good and limiting the bad”, the capital strength has increased (the 2019 mid-term net asset ranks among the top five in the industry), Huatai Securities with perfect wind control (3 consecutive years of AA rating from the China Securities Regulatory Commission) and enhanced innovation capabilities (Science and Technology Board, wealth management, and overseas business continue to lead the way) will be one of the beneficiaries.

We forecast Huatai Securities’ BVPS to be 13 in 2019-2020.

21 yuan and 13.

64 yuan, corresponding to the current total PB is 1.

55X and 1.

50X to Huatai Securities (601688.

SH) “Buy” rating.

Risk warnings: unstable equity structure; marginal easing in monetary and credit policies failing to meet expectations; progress in capital market reforms failing to meet expectations.

Air China (601111): The impact of the epidemic showed that the load factor decreased by 3 as well.


Air China (601111): The impact of the epidemic showed that the load factor decreased by 3 as well.

The impact of the epidemic situation is apparent, and the overall load factor has increased.

3 points, maintaining the “buy” of Air China’s January 2020 operating data. The impact of the new crown virus on the civil aviation industry has been reflected in January, and the available seat kilometers have increased by 1.

2%, income passenger kilometers fell by 2.

9%, passenger load factor 76.

6%, down by 3.

3 points.

It is expected that civil aviation demand will face the risk of further 天津夜网 decline in the short term. The company will reduce its capacity to reduce the adverse impact of the epidemic. We lowered our 2019E / 20E / 21E net profit forecast to 79.



500 million, corresponding to 0 EPS.



84 yuan, the updated target price range is 9.


11 yuan, maintaining “buy”.

The epidemic has restrained civil aviation travel, the company’s overall demand has increased negatively, and the passenger load factor has increased slightly. Although civil aviation sometimes ushers in the spring season, the new coronavirus epidemic has a significant impact on civil aviation passenger travel.

According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in January civil aviation completed a total of 5,060 passenger traffic.

20,000 person-times, a decline of 5 per year.


Facing the outbreak, the company gradually reduced its transportation expenditure, and the overall supply increased by 1 in January.

2%, lower than the growth rate of 3 in 2019.

9pct; however, the demand for civil aviation travel has begun to be suppressed, and the company’s overall demand has fallen by 2 as well.

9%, useful load factor decreased by 3.

3pct to 76.

6%, the lowest since 2016.

The average load factor of all regions has increased, and the companies with the largest regional lines have similar capacity growth rates on domestic and international routes.

Domestic line supply increased by 1 in January.

7%, international supply increased by 1.

3%, lower than the growth rate of 2 in 2019.

9pct and 4.

3 points.

The new crown epidemic had a significant impact on both domestic and international demand, with RPKs falling by 2 respectively.

4% and 1.

9%, the load factor dropped two times.

2pct and 2.

6pct, reduced to 76.3% and 77.


In addition, the regional airlines have not recovered due to the impact of regional incidents, and have been compounded by the recent epidemic.

4pct to 70.


Waiting for the epidemic situation to lift demand, the short-term performance pressure is apparent. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, on February 14th, civil aviation converted and sent only 3.8 million passengers, alternating 84.

5%, which is expected to be more severely affected by the epidemic in February, and the airline company has potential performance pressure in the first quarter.

However, the demand for civil aviation travel is rigid. After the epidemic eases, the demand for civil aviation passengers may pick up rapidly.

In addition, in order to support China ‘s civil aviation industry, which has been severely affected by the epidemic, the State Council will propose to exempt civil aviation companies from paying Nas ‘s civil aviation development fund from January 1, 2020. In the first half of 2019, Air China paid civil aviation development fund.

900 million, accounting for a maximum of 26 profits.

5%, or will partially ease performance pressure.

Lower earnings forecast and adjust target price range to 9.


11 yuan, maintaining the “Buy” rating was affected by the new crown epidemic in the short term, the company’s performance pressure was transmitted, and the economic stimulus policy had not yet fully played its role in official demand. We lowered our 2019E / 20E / 21E net profit forecast4.

6% / 41.

9% / 36.

1% to 79.



5 billion.

Give 1.


3x 2020PB (BPS is expected to be 7 in 2020.

78 yuan, the company’s 8-year PB multiple average of 1.

23 PB), adjust the target price range 9.


11 yuan.

In the long run, China ‘s civil aviation demand is still tough, and Daxing Airport has been put into production. The company expects that the expansion of Capital Airport will continue to increase, which will benefit from the high yield of Capital Airport, meet the development potential, and maintain a “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Oil prices continue to increase, the appreciation of the RMB, the speed of high-speed rail, economic growth is gradually increasing, and the impact of the epidemic has exceeded expectations.

Daqin Railway (601006) 2018 Annual Report and 2109 First Quarterly Report Comments: Q1 Revenue Exceeds Expectation Tang Tie Or Contributes 400 Million Revenue

Daqin Railway (601006) 2018 Annual Report and 2109 First Quarterly Report Comments: Q1 Revenue Exceeds Expectation Tang Tie Or Contributes 400 Million Revenue

The new liquidation brought caliber changes. In 2018, the company’s net profit exceeded 14.5 billion yuan, and unit freight rates may rise by 22%.

In Q1 2019, the company’s revenue exceeded expectations, or the carrier’s Shanxi coal increased by about 600.

The acquisition of Tanggang is expected to contribute 400 million yuan in revenue in 2019, and the risk of relocation and suspension of shunting will be lifted.

The company still strives to maintain 4 in 2019.

With a transportation volume of about 5 tons, the marketization of railways may benefit in the future.

The new liquidation brought caliber changes, with net profit exceeding 14.5 billion in 2018 and revenue growth in Q1 2019 exceeding expectations.

In 2018, the company’s revenue increased by 35.

5% to 783.

400 million; return to mother / deducted non-net profit 145.

4 billion, 146.

700 million, an increase of 9.

0%, 10.

8%, the corresponding return is 0.

98 yuan.

Due to changes in the new liquidation caliber, gross profit margin decreased by 3.

0 to 24.


The investment income of associates decreased slightly in 2018.

3% to 30.

900 million, mainly benefiting from the yellow line traffic3.

200 million tons at full load.

The traffic volume of the Daqin Line in 2019Q1 decreased by 3.

7%, but the company’s revenue increased by 6.

7%, exceeding market expectations.

It is expected that the reduction in beneficiary traffic will mostly come from Inner Mongolia coal. The company’s Shanxi coal traffic, which is the carrier, will increase by about 600 tons.

Driven by cost, the company’s net profit was downgraded by 4 in 2019Q1.

1% to 40.


The freight rate of the new clearing unit also increased by 22%, and the release of production capacity in Shanxi may have a difficult impact on hedging.

In 2108, the company achieved a 7% increase in freight shipments.

7% to 6.

400 million tons, including Daqin Line and Houyue Line, which completed freight volume4.

5.1 billion, 8776 oxide.

New railway clearing encourages loading, and the company’s average unit freight rate increased by 21.

9% to 0.

15 yuan / ton kilometer.

In Q1 2019, the production of raw coal in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi both increased by 5.

1%, 11.6% and -13.

0%, the Sanxi area increased production in 1677, Shanxi coal production capacity may impact the impact of mining difficulties.

The company’s operating costs increased by 44 in 2018.

5% to 58.9 billion, of which, affected by liquidation, freight service charges also increased by 8.

9 times to 152.

5 billion.

The acquisition of Tangtie may contribute 400 million yuan in revenue, and the risk of relocation and suspension of shunting will be relieved.

The company’s acquisition of the controlling shareholder Taiyuan Bureau Group holds Tanggang Railway19.

73% equity, which improves the initial and independence of the collection and distribution system.

In 2018, the Tang-Hong Kong Railway completed freight volume2.

1.3 billion tons, of which Qian Cao line accounted for 84%.

In 2018, Tanggang Railway realized a net profit of 20.

300 million, or about 400 million in revenue in 2019.

According to the Erdos Coal Network report, the suspension of Qingang relocation and coal transfer by the Ministry of Communications is beneficial if the diversion risk is promoted and the company’s profitability is improved. It is estimated that each diversion of Qingang to 1000 units in Caofeidian Port will reduce the company’s net profit by 75 million.

Reduce fees or affect company income.

About 3%, it is expected to benefit from the accelerated marketization of railways.

During the two sessions, China Railway always stated that the railway promoted tax reduction and fee reduction, and the extension was repeated from 10% to 9%, or transferred to the downstream of the industry chain in the same amount. It is not expected to have a significant impact on the company’s performance.

In addition, starting from April 1, the railway cancelled the dump truck operation service and reduced the freight extension fee, which is expected to affect the company’s revenue1.


500 million, accounting for 0 of 2018 revenue.

About 3%.

The government work report pointed out that the reform of monopoly fields such as railways will be deepened, and competitive businesses will be fully 成都桑拿网 introduced to the market.

In the future, the operation mechanism of the Daqin Railway will gradually increase flexibility, and there is room for breakthroughs in cost optimization.

Risk factors: Less-than-expected demand for thermal coal, better-than-expected hydropower and imported coal, and lowered railway freight prices.

Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

The new liquidation caliber changed in 2018, and the performance basically met expectations.

2019Q1 revenue increased by 6.

7%, exceeding market expectations.

Adjust the net profit for 2019-2021 by 14.1 billion / 14.3 billion / 14.5 billion according to the data of the annual report (the original forecast was 14.7 billion / 14.8 billion in 2019-20, and it will be new in 2021).

Beneficial deformation, the company’s capacity may be maintained4.

About 500 million tons.

The dividend yield is nearly 6%, making investment attractive.

Hong Baoli (002165) 2018 Annual Report Comment: The Successful Turnover of the Trial Project

Hong Baoli (002165) 2018 Annual Report Comment: The Successful Turnover of the Trial Project
Event Red Polaroid released its 2018 annual report, which initially achieved operating income in 201824.6.7 billion, an annual increase of 13.63%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 2907.840,000 yuan, a decrease of 28 per year.91%; net profit after deduction is 1712.540,000 yuan, an annual increase of 38.twenty four%.Among them, Q4 quarter achieved operating income5.8.4 billion, an annual increase of 16.93%, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 4.54 million yuan, which was repeated at 13.8 million yuan in the same period in 2017.At the same time, the company estimates that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company will be 19-20 million yuan from January to March 2019, a year-on-year increase of 539% -589%, which is higher than the single quarter profit of Q1-Q4 in 2018.  The company commented on the rigid foam polyether, the steady increase of alcohol amines, and the increase in raw material prices caused the cost to rise. The company’s 18-year rigid foam combination polyether achieved revenue of 15%.45 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.26%.The gross profit margin is 10.82%, increasing by 0 every year.57 single; isopropanolamine business achieved revenue 7.97 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.18%, gross margin is 18.79%, a decrease of 4 per year.97 units.The total unit cost of rigid foam polyether and isopropanolamine increased by 9.58%, the first is the average purchase price of propylene oxide increased by 13.39%.The company has an annual output capacity of 15 kinds of initial rigid foam combination polyethers and supporting production of polyether polyols. The alcohol amine base has an annual output of 9 types of alcohol amines (4 substitute alcohol amines, 5 molecules of diethanol monoisopropanolamine).The downstream products of the company’s rigid foam combined polyether products are mainly home appliance refrigerators, refrigerated containers, etc. The customers cover Midea, Hisense, Meiling, Electrolux, LG, Samsung and other well-known domestic and foreign enterprises.And the company is still exploring markets such as refrigerated containers and water heaters.Isopropanolamine is a green fine chemical raw material that can be used in the production of surfactants, auxiliaries, plasticizers and other products. Diethanol monomolecular alcohol amines are mainly cement admixtures downstream.With the continuous development of downstream customers, the polyether business and alcohol-doped amine business will continue to grow steadily.  The trial production of the cyclopropane project was successful. The DCP project provided a follow-up incremental company. On January 9, 2019, the company announced that the annual production of Taixing’s subsidiary was interrupted and the trial production of the project had been successfully carried out.The company’s cyclopropane project uses the self-developed new co-oxidation process, which is the first unit of this process in China.The company will gradually increase the equipment load in the future, which will help reduce the cost of main operations and increase the gross profit margin of production.  Another project of Taixing subsidiary is annual output 2.4This type of DCP project, DCP is a new green cross-linking agent, synthetic natural rubber, synthetic rubber, rubber and plastic cross-linking agent and polymerization initiator.The sales growth rate of the DCP industry is around 5%, but domestic DCP production enterprises have replaced it, and production requires higher environmental protection and safe production.The raw material of the company’s DCP project is the intermediate product of the cyclopropane project, which will have an inherent refractive index advantage, with an annual output of 1 in the first phase.2The initial DCP production line is expected to enter the trial operation phase in mid-1919, and 杭州夜网论坛 the second-phase project is expected to be completed by the end of 19th. According to the plan, it is estimated that it will contribute about 4 every year after the production is reached.Sales income of 10,000 yuan and net profit of 81.5 million yuan.  Profit forecast and estimation We estimate the company’s operating income in 2019, 2020 and 2021 to be 27.9.1 billion, 30.9.2 billion and 33.93 trillion, with growth rates of 13 respectively.12%, 10.80% and 9.71%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 86.22 million, 1.4.6 billion and 1.0.94 million yuan, the growth rate was 196.49%, 69.34% and 32.91%; Fully diluted earnings per share were 0.14, 0.24 and 0.32 yuan, corresponding to 35 for PE.7, 21.1 and 15.9 times, covering for the first time, giving a “cautious increase” rating within the next six months.  Risks indicate that the development of polyether customers is less than expected; the operating rate of epoxy resin projects is lower than expected; the progress of DCP project construction is lower than expected; safety or environmental accidents occur; systemic risks.